No Trading From the Stands: Australia’s Prediction Markets Ban Meets the NFL

Australia’s prediction markets ban is getting its biggest real-world test yet this week, as the National Football League (NFL) plays its first-ever regular season game on Australian soil. An estimated 10,000 fans from the United States (US) are flying to Melbourne for the Los Angeles Rams versus San Francisco 49ers matchup, many of them regular users of prediction platforms like Kalshi back home.

None of them will be able to trade from their seats. Here’s why Australia’s regulators drew a hard line on prediction markets, and why the NFL’s own commissioner is quietly pleased about it.

Key Insights: Australia’s Prediction Markets Ban and the NFL Game

• The NFL’s first-ever regular season game in Australia, Los Angeles Rams versus San Francisco 49ers, is being played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground with an estimated 10,000 US fans attending.
• Trading on prediction markets is illegal in Australia, according to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the country’s financial services regulator.
• ASIC reiterated last month, in one of its strongest warnings yet, that prediction markets are not licensed to operate as financial markets in Australia.
• Kalshi’s own user agreement lists Australia among roughly three dozen countries where residents are barred from trading on its platform.
• The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) separately banned Polymarket from operating in Australia in 2025, ruling it offered unlicensed interactive gambling and unlawful in-play betting.

Why Does Australia’s Prediction Markets Ban Stop Fans From Trading?

The restriction comes down to how two different Australian regulators have classified prediction markets. Neither treats them as harmless novelty betting:

• ASIC’s position is that prediction markets are not licensed financial products in Australia, meaning users get none of the consumer protections that come with regulated investment platforms.
• ACMA’s position, applied specifically to Polymarket in 2025, is that certain prediction market activity amounts to unlicensed interactive gambling under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001, particularly in-play sports betting.
• Kalshi’s own compliance response reflects both concerns. Its member agreement explicitly lists Australia as a restricted jurisdiction, and the platform can deny access to users based there.

Between the two regulators, Australia has effectively closed off prediction markets from two different legal angles at once: as unlicensed financial products, and as unlicensed gambling.

Why the NFL Isn’t Unhappy About Australia’s Prediction Markets Ban

This is where the story gets a genuinely interesting twist. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, speaking to CNBC from Melbourne ahead of the game, made it clear he sees Australia’s restrictions as closer to the right approach than the current US environment:

• He wants tighter rules, not fewer. Goodell said the league wants “stronger regulations into the predictive markets” specifically to protect the integrity of NFL games.
• The concern isn’t new. The NFL has already written formally to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal derivatives regulator, listing event contracts it considers objectionable, including bets on missed field goals, incomplete first passes, and referee decisions.
• Some leagues have gone the other way. Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League have each signed a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC allowing partnerships with prediction market operators, a path the NFL has so far avoided.

Goodell’s own framing was blunt: “We don’t think we have to be first in this, we feel like we’re going to be right.” For a league watching Australia’s regulators effectively lock prediction markets out entirely, that’s a comfortable position to hold from the sidelines.

What This Means for the Betting Landscape Back Home

The contrast between Melbourne and California is stark. Both the Rams and 49ers are based in a state with more than 39 million residents and no legal sports betting, which has made it fertile ground for prediction markets operating in a regulatory grey area.

Kalshi, which has reportedly sought a valuation around $44 billion ahead of a potential initial public offering (IPO), requires proof of US residency and a US tax identification number to sign up, alongside standard identity checks. None of that infrastructure extends to Australia, where the platform simply isn’t permitted to operate at all.

Responsible Gambling: What Australia’s Prediction Markets Ban Actually Protects

It’s worth being clear about what Australia’s approach is actually trying to prevent, separate from any argument about market innovation or investor choice:

• No dispute resolution safety net. ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland has warned that Australians using offshore prediction platforms miss out on protections that licensed local products are required to provide.
• Integrity risks aren’t hypothetical. The NFL’s own objections, around bets that could be influenced by a single player’s actions on a single play, show how easily some event contracts can blur into manipulation risk.
• The line between investing and gambling matters. Whether a product is called a “prediction market” or a “bet,” responsible gambling principles still apply once real money and real outcomes are involved.

This isn’t the first time Australian regulators have drawn a hard line on emerging products aimed at consumers. Our earlier coverage of ACMA’s warning on influencer gambling promotion shows a similar pattern: new formats get tested against existing law quickly, rather than being left unregulated by default.

What Happens Next With Australia’s Prediction Markets Ban?

• The Melbourne game itself goes ahead as scheduled, with fans simply unable to legally trade prediction contracts on-site or from Australia generally.
• Kalshi’s international ambitions appear to be on hold. Reports suggest the company may wait until after a potential IPO before pursuing expansion into markets like Australia.
• The NFL’s push to the CFTC continues separately in the US, with the league having already escalated its concerns twice this year through formal correspondence.
• Australia’s dual regulatory approach, combining ASIC’s financial markets stance with ACMA’s gambling classification, is likely to remain the template for how new prediction platforms are treated here.

More AU Gambling Coverage

This story connects to our broader coverage of how Australia’s gambling regulatory framework treats emerging betting formats, and our earlier reporting on ACMA’s enforcement approach to influencer-driven gambling promotion. Keep up with all our latest Australian gambling news as the prediction markets debate continues.

The Bottom Line on Australia’s Prediction Markets Ban

Australia’s prediction markets ban turned an otherwise straightforward NFL road trip into a small case study in regulatory divergence. American fans can trade real money on live sporting outcomes from their phones at home, but not from a stadium seat in Melbourne.

That gap exists because two separate Australian regulators, one covering financial products and one covering gambling, both concluded the same thing: prediction markets need clearer rules before they operate here. Given the NFL’s own commissioner is arguing for something similar in the US, Australia’s approach might end up looking less like an outlier and more like an early mover.

Prediction Markets Ban Australia: Quick-Fire FAQs

Why is Kalshi banned in Australia?

Kalshi is not banned by name specifically, but Australia is listed in Kalshi’s own user agreement as a restricted jurisdiction, reflecting the Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s position that prediction markets are not licensed financial products in the country.

Is Polymarket legal in Australia?

No. The Australian Communications and Media Authority banned Polymarket from operating in Australia in 2025, ruling that its in-play sports betting violated the Interactive Gambling Act 2001.

Why did the NFL play a game in Australia?

The NFL’s first-ever regular season game in Australia features the Los Angeles Rams against the San Francisco 49ers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, part of the league’s ongoing international expansion.

Does the NFL support prediction markets?

Not in their current form. Commissioner Roger Goodell has publicly called for stronger regulation of prediction markets in the United States, and the league has formally objected to specific event contracts through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

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